Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 12.879583 15.754934 18.955499 22.758691 27.130373 31.973833 37.720492
2025-11-30 8.994980 12.747461 17.388044 23.443679 31.024961 40.088076 51.617667
2025-12-07 6.456119 10.367176 15.641395 23.047018 32.929643 45.407313 62.067266
2025-12-14 4.993534 8.953243 14.705057 23.283664 35.327719 51.188974 73.151119
2025-12-21 3.627749 7.305916 13.072007 22.200295 35.654501 54.083746 80.464164
2025-12-28 2.980012 6.622231 12.702789 22.797951 38.249491 60.056431 92.055634
2026-01-04 2.419851 5.940530 12.195002 23.063412 40.296777 65.295538 102.811846
2026-01-11 2.004688 5.417964 11.847310 23.496259 42.561719 70.895786 114.256979
2026-01-18 1.700686 5.037030 11.673331 24.161368 45.183833 77.095826 126.766431
2026-01-25 1.333539 4.409158 10.930273 23.743648 46.004364 80.595595 135.440017
2026-02-01 1.103636 4.032180 10.601854 23.999746 47.903249 85.777098 146.746194
2026-02-08 0.871885 3.570071 10.014530 23.697029 48.808261 89.416286 155.827738
2026-02-15 0.643054 3.039362 9.216903 22.972372 49.058134 92.237051 164.124748
2026-02-22 0.539040 2.848931 9.156285 23.699554 51.936526 99.455760 179.568063
2026-03-01 0.403135 2.477638 8.583896 23.301780 52.730041 103.273978 189.801233
2026-03-08 0.320576 2.255823 8.334023 23.540594 54.692478 109.093245 203.383080
2026-03-15 0.216633 1.862335 7.528269 22.447899 54.026848 110.404961 209.728232
2026-03-22 0.178084 1.748241 7.478309 23.050718 56.669905 117.489032 225.677908
2026-03-29 0.139814 1.601806 7.296834 23.318461 58.654225 123.488918 240.013019
2026-04-05 0.111780 1.489099 7.192681 23.755018 60.995313 130.195070 255.707613
2026-04-12 0.092012 1.411564 7.185108 24.425798 63.848589 137.909465 273.299232
2026-04-19 0.064098 1.229359 6.768635 24.004520 64.389527 141.460521 283.944728
2026-04-26 0.048853 1.130338 6.621717 24.262801 66.374991 147.704534 299.337542